Decline and Fall of the Labour Party

Is the Labour Party now entering it's death throes?

Let's consider the facts :

The Labour Party's origins lie in the late 19th century, around which time it became apparent that there was a need for a new political party to represent the interests and needs of the urban proletariat. In the 1895 general election, the Independent Labour Party put up 28 candidates but won only 44,325 votes.

But from little acorns, mighty oaks did grow. By 1910, the party had 42 MPs and was seen by many to take over from the Liberal Party as the true home of the left wing vote.

Then came the First World War and the Liberal failure to provide jobs for the returning heroes led to a surge in the popular vote for the Labour Party. This was further enhanced by the depression of the 1930s.

The graph on the right shows the share of the votes for the three main parties from the mid 1800's through to the present day. This clearly shows that Labour took its share of the vote not from the Conservatives, but the Liberals.

When Tony Blair rebranded the party as New Labour he was ironically moving the party into the very position on the centre left of politics that Labour had claimed from the Liberals in the years following WWII - and it was this very repositioning that has led to the decline in the party's fortunes.

Taking its main backing from the Trades Union movement, Labour has also seen a fall in support following the militant actions of the 1970s so effectively crushed by Margaret Thatcher's government. This stemmed the power of the unions and led to a decline in union membership which has continued to the present day.

It is here that history begins to repeat itself. The Liberal Democrats have performed the very manoeuvre that worked so effectively for Labour. It is they, not Labour, who are now seen as occupying the centre left of politics - thus regaining the ground they lost to Labour in the first place.

Since Blair's departure, Gordon Brown has moved the party further back to the left and New Labour is once again seen as the Labour Party of old. Ironically, the Credit Crunch has mimicked in its own way the Depression that was the downfall of the old Liberal party - only this time it is Labour that is paying the price.

Over the coming years, the power of the union movement will continue to decline and take Labour with it. Social mobility has become a force to be reckoned with, moving the downtrodden working classes of old into the new middle class where they are more appropriately represented by the LibDems.

It is quite possible that Labour will not hold government again in our lifetimes - and when you look at the mess they have made of the country over the last 13 years, this seems wholly understandable.